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Is Apple's Predicablility Responsible for Lackluster First Quarter Revenue Projections?

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Apple may be one of the most profitable, most valuable businesses in the world (at least among those not based on oil) but that doesn't mean investors don't want more. Apple's revenue for the first quarter of CY2014 will be released on Wednesday and are projected to be $43.6 billion with about $9.5 billion in profits. These would be terrific numbers for any company, but for Apple, they were flat compared to the same period last year, which itself was their first decrease in profits in a decade.

This may be because Apple consumers are used to specific patterns. During the summer, Apple offers Back-To-School promotions that, in addition to educational discounts, include iTunes and App Store gift cards with the purchase of a Mac. Apple typically releases a new iPhone in September and new Macs in June at their WWDC (Worldwide Developers Conference.)  

Indeed, I ordered a MacBook Pro with Retina Display directly from the lobby at WWDC two years ago when it was announced, and that MacBook is now ripe for replacement. Knowing Apple's schedules, and a rumored 12" MacBook, expected to be announced at WWDC, I'm holding out. And with two-year cycles for iPhones, upgrades are even more predictable.

MacBook

Obviously, the October to December period sees growth from holiday shopping, leaving the January–March quarter a time to wait and see. Despite Apple's penchant for secrecy, it may be Apple's predictability that causes the January to March slowdown year after year.


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