The iPad Air is truly a big hit, and now speculation is focusing on when the iPad mini with retina display will become available. Apple only said "late November" when they announced the new device. MacRumors reported last week that the Target website is listing an availability date of November 21. We don't know, though, if that's simply an educated guess or if it's based on information the retailer has from Apple.
The International Business Times makes a solid case that the new mini will be available on November 22. They point out that Apple almost always releases devices on a Friday, and it would hardly make sense for Apple to release the device on November 29, which is the day after Thanksgiving, otherwise known as Black Friday. For one thing, Apple announced that a large percentage of their employees will have the week of Thanksgiving off. It seems unlikely they'd launch a device while being thinly staffed. In addition, since they usually offer Black Friday promotions that increase traffic, it could produce an overwhelming amount of traffic if they launched the mini on the same day.
Even when it does launch, the retina iPad mini could be in very short supply. All along there were rumors that Apple's suppliers were having a difficult time making enough of the displays because of certain technical challenges. One report estimated there may only be one-third the number of devices available initially compared to the original iPad mini. Supplies could be constrained through the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the iPad Air seems to be having a spectacular launch, given the positive reviews and the indicators that it's selling well. Apple usually releases sales figures for the first weekend. But they haven't yet done so this time. The reason may be that Apple has never broken down sales figures between the iPad and iPad mini. And since the mini won't go on sale until later this month, they may be reluctant to report sales for the iPad Air only.
Nevertheless, the blogs today are buzzing with speculation that it will be a record weekend for iPad sales. Last year, with the launch of the fourth-generation iPad and the new iPad mini, Apple sold 3 million devices the first weekend. Many are suggesting that the iPad Air may have sold as many as 5 million.
This speculation is based on statistics related to the adoption rate of the iPad Air. As reported by TechCrunch, developers are able to determine which device is running their apps. And when a new device comes out, they can see how quickly their apps are being adopted by the new device. The adoption rate for the new iPad Air is an amazing 5 times the adoption rate of the fourth-generation iPad after the opening weekend, according to one developer that has a portfolio of apps.
Whatever the results turn out to be, clearly it's a great device. I finally got to try one this morning, and the thing that struck me was how small it seems compared to the previous iPad. I'd seen lots of comparison photos, but seeing it in person was much more impressive. The older models seem clunky in comparison.